Tuesday, 10 December 2019

Democrats Know The Senate Won't Remove Trump. Here's Why They're Still Pushing A Pointless Impeachment.

Say what you will about Nancy Pelosi;  She is a brilliant politician.  You wouldn't think so looking at recent impeachment events.  As we try to do, let's take partisan politics out of this.

Simple facts:  The House is going to impeach President Donald Trump.  They will do so along party lines.  Not one Republican will vote in favour of the impeachment, and not one Democrat will vote against it. 

More simple facts:  The Senate will not impeach President Donald Trump.  It is possible a handful of Republicans will vote with Democrats, depending on the political climate at the time of the vote.  But aside from the Susan Collins's and Mitt Romney's of the world, the Republicans are lock step with President Trump.  The truth is weather you believe he should be impeached or not, it's hard to deny that Trump hit the nail on the head when he said he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and get away with it.  There is nothing Trump could do, no further evidence that could come out that would cause enough Senators to vote for impeachment to meet the 67 votes necessary.

So what the hell is the point?  There is no doubt that Pelosi is driving this ship.  This is a woman who is in her 17th term in the House of Representatives, the first female Speaker of the House in American History.  Why would she lead the troops on a fool's errand?  For political points?  Doubtful.  Trumps supporters are Trumps supporters.  His opponents are his opponents.  A small percentage have been swayed by the whole process, but not enough to warrant this ordeal.  To tarnish President Trump, as the talking heads at Fox news claim?  Again, she's smart enough to realise nothing she does here will influence his base.

So why?  Could it be that it isn't a fool's errand at all?  The answer lies in the Articles of Impeachment released today.

Click the image below to read the Articles of Impeachment themselves.  I would encourage you to actually read them; weather you're a Democrat or a Republican, buck the trend.  Read it yourself.  Form your own opinion.  Don't let Hannity or Rachel Maddow tell you what it says.

Image result for articles of impeachment

On page 5, we find this.

We now go to Justia, the Online bible of United States law

Because conviction requires a two-thirds vote, this means that removal can occur only as a result of a two-thirds vote. Unlike removal, disqualification from office is a discretionary judgment, and there is no explicit constitutional linkage to the two-thirds vote on conviction. Although an argument can be made that disqualification should nonetheless require a two-thirds vote,  the Senate has determined that disqualification may be accomplished by a simple majority vote.

And there it is.  The Democrats aren't fools.  They know full well Trump isn't going anywhere before November.  But while they will never get 20 republicans to turn, they will no doubt have some surprises in store for the Senate trial; personally I think they will attempt to call John Bolton.  And if they play their cards right.... and things fall perfectly into place.... and with Giuliani still stirring things up, and the media dropping bombs on a near daily basis, anything is possible.... it is conceivable that they could turn the 4 they would need to keep Trump from running in 2020.




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